Myanmar has agreed to take back 180,000 Rohingyas in the first phase of repatriation, according to the Bangladesh government. However, much of Rakhine State is currently under the control of the Arakan Army, a powerful armed resistance group. Analysts believe this makes Rohingya repatriation far from straightforward.
On Friday, April 4, the Chief Advisor’s verified Facebook post about the repatriation sparked widespread discussion and debate. Even within the Rohingya refugee camps, opinions are divided on the matter.
Mohammad Hossain, a resident of Camp-1, said that while they want recognition as Rohingya and a dignified return, the ongoing conflict in Myanmar makes the situation uncertain. “How can we return when our relatives and fellow community members are in grave danger there?” he asked.
Another Rohingya, Maulana Abdul Hamid, expressed gratitude for Bangladesh’s shelter but emphasized the need for a dignified repatriation. “We don’t want to survive on Bangladesh’s goodwill forever. Our lives are trapped in these overcrowded camps. But with the military junta no longer in control of Rakhine, how will repatriation even be possible?”
Experts Express Doubts
Tanbirul Miraj Ripon, a journalist who has covered the Rohingya crisis for years, told Cox’s Bazar Life that Rohingya repatriation is not as simple as it sounds.
“I oppose this move. The Myanmar junta has no control over Rakhine anymore—especially in Rohingya-dominated areas like Buthidaung and Rathedaung, which are entirely under Arakan Army control. If Bangladesh continues negotiations with the Myanmar military to create a ‘popular narrative’ of repatriation, it will not lead to a sustainable solution,” he added.
Ripon pointed out that in 2023, when a group of Rohingyas was taken to Rakhine for a brief observation trip, they returned to Teknaf Jetty, stating there were no safety guarantees for them.
“This is just a tactic to mislead Bangladesh,” he asserted.
Another journalist, Sourav Dev, who has extensively covered the Rohingya issue, was even more direct, stating: “Believe me, this is impossible. The Myanmar junta does not control the Arakan region—90% of it is under the Arakan Army. In such a scenario, how can the junta repatriate 180,000 Rohingyas? Where will they settle them? Will the Arakan Army just sit back and watch? More importantly, what do UN repatriation guidelines say? Can people be sent back to a war-torn region? The UN would never approve such a move. Based on my understanding of international law, this is simply not feasible—period.”
Security Challenges
Retired Major Emdadul Islam, a security analyst, also voiced his skepticism: “Rohingya repatriation is not viable under current conditions. Rakhine remains highly unstable, with no security guarantees. Even the UN Secretary-General has stated that repatriation can only be considered once stability and security are ensured. Right now, there are no homes for the Rohingyas to return to, and their former settlements are under Arakan Army control. So how can this process take place? When? How? With whose clearance? Everything remains uncertain.”
A Crisis Without Resolution
The Rohingya crisis began on August 25, 2017, when Myanmar’s military launched a brutal crackdown in northern Rakhine State. More than 700,000 Rohingyas fled to Bangladesh within weeks, seeking refuge in camps in Ukhiya and Teknaf. Today, their population in Bangladesh has swelled to 1.25 million, with unofficial estimates suggesting an even higher number.
While Bangladesh has borne the enormous burden of sheltering this population, hopes for a safe and voluntary repatriation have been repeatedly dashed. The ongoing conflict between the Arakan Army and Myanmar’s military has displaced even more Rohingyas within Rakhine, some of whom are now seeking refuge in Bangladesh.
Despite all these challenges, many Rohingyas in Bangladesh still wish to return home—if only they can do so with security and dignity.
By Abdur Rashid Manik
File Photo
