In the upcoming 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, candidates will need 270 electoral votes to win, with swing states playing a crucial role in determining the outcome.
NewsNation’s analysis outlines several paths to victory, particularly emphasizing the importance of the Sun Belt and the “blue wall” states.
Former President Donald Trump is favored in key swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, positioning the Sun Belt as vital for a Republican victory.
Conversely, Vice President Kamala Harris aims to secure her 270 electoral votes by winning the three northern battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Harris is leading in Michigan, with tight races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
As of November 1, NewsNation partner Decision Desk HQ’s analysis indicates Trump has a 54% chance of winning, while Harris stands at 46%.
Trump’s most promising route to victory includes winning Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina and at least one blue wall state, ideally Pennsylvania, where, according to Decision Desk HQ, he currently has a 53% chance of success.
If Trump succeeds in Pennsylvania, he could afford to lose Arizona while still reaching the necessary electoral votes.
Traditionally, Republicans have performed well in Georgia and North Carolina, especially among higher-income white voters, but changing demographics could alter this dynamic.
A recent New York Times analysis found that newcomers to Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have leaned more Democratic in recent years.
While Harris is favored in Michigan, she trails slightly in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
If Trump can penetrate the blue wall by winning these key states, he could achieve 272 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania remains a critical battleground with 19 electoral votes at stake, but Trump could still secure a win by carrying Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
NewsNation
Photo: BBC
